Are we heading to a new ICE Age?

(True Partner Capital, February 2026, Chicago/Hong Kong)

In the seventies, climate scientists believed earth was heading for a new ice age. But prices were mostly hot, as it was a decade of high inflation and high equity volatility. Today, there are notable parallels. US foreign policy has turned adversarial, globalization appears to be in retreat, bond yields have ticked up, and it remains a question whether massive AI-related capital spending will be recouped. Meanwhile, the tide appears to be shifting: shares outstanding for the VXUS ETF, which tracks non-US equities globally, have risen by 32% since the start of 2025, while those for the S&P 500 SPY ETF slightly declined.

US equity valuations remain in their uppermost percentiles while other markets, notably China, trade at significantly lower multiples, a gap that may present one of today's most compelling opportunities. At the same time, US implied volatility has remained range bound, even as Asian markets have stepped up the pace of their ascent, with Korea's Kospi 200 now up nearly 150% since the start of 2025.

In our latest article, Co-CIOs Govert Heijboer and Tobias Hekster examine why non-US investors are starting to reconsider their US exposure, and why going ICE, Into China Equity, may offer the most reasonable risk/reward alternative. They also discuss how True Partner's tail hedging and China Dragon Tail strategy are positioned to navigate the road ahead.

Mr. Heijboer: "As experienced traders we foresee 2026 to be an interesting year that could be as adrenaline-fueled as riding the Tail of the Dragon (the famous stretch of road in the Smokey Mountains in Tennessee, US) and the start of the new ICE age."

True Partner assist investors with tailored solutions to optimally navigate market turmoil, specifically tail solutions and China opportunities.

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